Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Brighton–Leicester

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'BrightonJoao Pedro (penalty)
38'LeicesterS. Mavididi
55'BrightonJoao Pedro (penalty)
74'LeicesterCaleb Okoli (assist: B. El Khannouss)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brighton		Leicester
21	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
530	Passes	358
460	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brighton 2.13 · Leicester 0.84. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Brighton 21 · Leicester 15; on target 7 and 6.
Brighton kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

D. Bond→

4.04

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.4%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.47 for Brighton, 0.77 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — Brighton win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,070 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brighton to win75.4%

Draw16.3%

Leicester to win8.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Brighton lead at half-time60.8%

Level at half-time32.2%

Leicester lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Brighton ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time67.8%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead39.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1070 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brighton: at least 10Actual: 9
Leicester: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Brighton: at least 5Actual: 3
Leicester: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brighton score2.13

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score0.84

Attack: Leicester score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.2%2–110.1%3–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.