Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 9

Vejle–Hvidovre

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 May 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vejle Stadion, Vejle

Goals and red cards

2'VejleG. Onugkha (assist: M. Juwara)
6'VejleG. Onugkha (assist: T. Francois)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vejle		Hvidovre
10	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
233	Passes	511
139	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vejle 1.55 · Hvidovre 1.04. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Vejle 10 · Hvidovre 8; on target 5 and 1.
Hvidovre kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

J. Maae→

4.08

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Vejle to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Vejle, 1.04 for Hvidovre.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Vejle win or draw).
These values were computed from 318 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vejle to win48.7%

Draw27.3%

Hvidovre to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Vejle lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Hvidovre lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Vejle ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Hvidovre ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 318 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vejle: at least 11Actual: 15
Hvidovre: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Vejle: at least 4Actual: 5
Hvidovre: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vejle score1.55

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hvidovre concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hvidovre score1.04

Attack: Hvidovre score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vejle's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.8%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.