Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 7

Randers FC–Hvidovre

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

Goals and red cards

8'Randers FCMike Themsen (assist: B. Kopplin)
11'HvidovreAndreas Smed (assist: T. Thomsen)
29'Randers FCJ. Bjorkengren (assist: M. Enggaard)
68'HvidovreLirim Qamili (assist: J. Adjei-Broni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Hvidovre
18	Shots	17
9	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
370	Passes	449
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.78 · Hvidovre 0.99. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Randers FC 18 · Hvidovre 17; on target 9 and 7.
Hvidovre kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Kristoffersen→

3.90

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Randers FC, 0.99 for Hvidovre.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Randers FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 312 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win56.0%

Draw24.8%

Hvidovre to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Randers FC win or draw80.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Hvidovre win44.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Randers FC lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time43.3%

Hvidovre lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Hvidovre ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 312 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 12
Hvidovre: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 4
Hvidovre: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.78

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hvidovre concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hvidovre score0.99

Attack: Hvidovre score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.9%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 312 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.