Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 6

Hvidovre–Viborg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pro Ventilation Arena, Hvidovre

Goals and red cards

80'ViborgJ. Vester (assist: D. Anyembe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hvidovre		Viborg
15	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
459	Passes	466
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hvidovre 1.13 · Viborg 1.56. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hvidovre 15 · Viborg 9; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

M. Redder→

4.62

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Hvidovre, 1.56 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (X2 — draw or Viborg win).
These values were computed from 310 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hvidovre to win26.0%

Draw27.1%

Viborg to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hvidovre win or draw53.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Viborg win74.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hvidovre lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time44.4%

Viborg lead at half-time35.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hvidovre ahead or level64.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 310 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hvidovre: at least 11Actual: 9
Viborg: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Hvidovre: at least 4Actual: 8
Viborg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (52.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hvidovre score1.13

Attack: Hvidovre score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score1.56

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hvidovre concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–210.3%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 310 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.