Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 5

Odense–Hvidovre

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Odense Stadium, Odense

Goals and red cards

33'HvidovreChristian Jakobsen (assist: J. Gemmer)
82'HvidovreLirim Qamili
85'OdenseMax Ejdum (assist: R. Al Hajj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Odense		Hvidovre
16	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
459	Passes	367
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Odense 1.71 · Hvidovre 1.01. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Odense 16 · Hvidovre 17; on target 7 and 8.
Odense kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Uslu→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Odense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Odense, 1.01 for Hvidovre.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Odense win or draw).
These values were computed from 306 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Odense to win53.6%

Draw25.6%

Hvidovre to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Odense lead at half-time52.9%

Level at half-time38.2%

Hvidovre lead at half-time8.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Odense ahead or level91.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Hvidovre ahead47.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 306 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Odense: at least 10Actual: 10
Hvidovre: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Odense: at least 5Actual: 14
Hvidovre: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Odense score1.71

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hvidovre concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hvidovre score1.01

Attack: Hvidovre score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Odense's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.