Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 4

Hvidovre–Vejle

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pro Ventilation Arena, Hvidovre

Goals and red cards

20'HvidovreT. Thomsen (assist: Christian Jakobsen)
84'HvidovreT. Thomsen
90+6'VejleG. Onugkha (assist: Hamza Barry)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hvidovre		Vejle
14	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
447	Passes	373
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hvidovre 1.15 · Vejle 1.36. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hvidovre 14 · Vejle 15; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

J. Sundberg→

4.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Vejle to win”. Second comes “Hvidovre to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Hvidovre, 1.36 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 303 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hvidovre to win30.5%

Draw28.8%

Vejle to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,845 of 7,510 predictions were correct (51.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hvidovre win or draw59.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.2%

X2 — draw or Vejle win69.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hvidovre lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time48.9%

Vejle lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hvidovre ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 303 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hvidovre: at least 10Actual: 9
Vejle: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Hvidovre: at least 5Actual: 3
Vejle: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hvidovre score1.15

Attack: Hvidovre score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vejle's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.36

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hvidovre concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.1%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 303 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.