Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Sporting CP–Chaves

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (penalty)
37'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: Ricardo Esgaio)
45+6'ChavesJ. Pius · red card
55'Sporting CPPaulinho (assist: N. Santos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Chaves
19	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
460	Passes	224
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 3.05 · Chaves 0.35. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sporting CP 19 · Chaves 12; on target 8 and 0.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Manuel Oliveira→

5.47

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 91.3%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 6.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.68 for Sporting CP, 0.63 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 97.8% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 609 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win91.3%

Draw6.4%

Chaves to win2.2%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 107 of 114 predictions were correct (93.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time67.2%

Level at half-time28.1%

Chaves lead at half-time4.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level95.3%

12 — not level at half-time71.9%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead32.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 609 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 12Actual: 16
Chaves: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 7Actual: 5
Chaves: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score3.05

Attack: Sporting CP score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.05 goals.

How many goals Chaves score0.35

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.6%4–010.7%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.