Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Farense–Portimonense

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Lúis, Faro

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'PortimonenseHildeberto Pereira (assist: Filipe Relvas)
32'PortimonenseCarlinhos (assist: Hildeberto Pereira)
55'FarenseCristian Ponde
88'PortimonenseFilipe Relvas · red card
90+7'PortimonenseLucas Ventura
90+9'FarensePastor

Match statistics

Match statistics
Farense		Portimonense
7	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
366	Passes	259
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Farense 2.02 · Portimonense 0.98. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Farense 7 · Portimonense 17; on target 3 and 7.
Farense kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Artur Soares Dias→

5.27

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Portimonense to win”. Second comes “Farense to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Farense, 1.79 for Portimonense.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 605 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Farense to win32.3%

Draw24.6%

Portimonense to win43.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Farense lead at half-time46.5%

Level at half-time39.0%

Portimonense lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Farense ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Portimonense ahead53.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 605 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Farense: at least 12Actual: 14
Portimonense: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Farense: at least 5Actual: 2
Portimonense: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Farense score2.02

Attack: Farense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portimonense concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portimonense score0.98

Attack: Portimonense score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Farense's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–29.7%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.