Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Chaves–Famalicao

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 10 May 2024 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'FamalicaoG. Sa (assist: J. Rodríguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Chaves		Famalicao
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
341	Passes	476
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Chaves 1.30 · Famalicao 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Chaves 9 · Famalicao 12; on target 2 and 4.
Famalicao kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho→

6.63

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “Chaves to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Chaves, 1.38 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 594 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Chaves to win32.2%

Draw28.3%

Famalicao to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Chaves lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time42.4%

Famalicao lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Chaves ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 594 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Chaves: at least 14Actual: 18
Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

Chaves: at least 4Actual: 3
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Chaves score1.30

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.39

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.4%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.