Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

Sporting CP–Portimonense

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Sporting CPPaulinho (assist: N. Santos)
70'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: Paulinho)
90+2'Sporting CPV. Gyökeres (assist: Daniel Bragança)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Portimonense
20	Shots	2
11	Shots on target	0
17	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
15	Corners	1
1	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
585	Passes	300
530	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 3.26 · Portimonense 0.30. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sporting CP 20 · Portimonense 2; on target 11 and 0.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Iancu Vasilica→

4.23

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.4%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.59 for Sporting CP, 0.65 for Portimonense.
The highest double chance value is 97.4% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 588 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win90.4%

Draw7.0%

Portimonense to win2.6%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 107 of 114 predictions were correct (93.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time74.4%

Level at half-time24.5%

Portimonense lead at half-time1.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level98.9%

12 — not level at half-time75.5%

X2 — level or Portimonense ahead25.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 588 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 10
Portimonense: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 7Actual: 15
Portimonense: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score3.26

Attack: Sporting CP score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Portimonense concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.26 goals.

How many goals Portimonense score0.30

Attack: Portimonense score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.5%4–010.4%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.