Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 32

Moreirense–Vizela

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 May 2024 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'MoreirenseL. Ofori

Match statistics

Match statistics
Moreirense		Vizela
11	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	5
5	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
295	Passes	466
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Moreirense 1.43 · Vizela 0.87. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Moreirense 11 · Vizela 8; on target 5 and 2.
Vizela kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Bruno Pires Costa→

3.33

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Moreirense to win”. Second comes “Vizela to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Moreirense, 1.15 for Vizela.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 585 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moreirense to win42.5%

Draw28.2%

Vizela to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Moreirense lead at half-time44.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Vizela lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Moreirense ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Vizela ahead55.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 585 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Moreirense: at least 13Actual: 22
Vizela: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 4
Vizela: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Moreirense score1.43

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vizela's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vizela score0.87

Attack: Vizela score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moreirense concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.9%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.