Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 31

Casa Pia–Chaves

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 April 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Casa PiaDuplexe Tchamba (assist: Y. Soma)
65'ChavesK. Nwakali (assist: Rúben Ribeiro)
67'Casa PiaY. Soma (assist: T. Segovia)
90+6'Casa PiaA. Lacximicant (assist: Beni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Casa Pia		Chaves
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
331	Passes	584
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Casa Pia 1.47 · Chaves 1.04. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Casa Pia 12 · Chaves 12; on target 5 and 6.
Chaves kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

João Ferreira→

4.86

yellows per match

0.48

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Casa Pia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Casa Pia, 0.93 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Casa Pia win or draw).
These values were computed from 577 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Casa Pia to win47.2%

Draw29.0%

Chaves to win23.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Casa Pia lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time44.0%

Chaves lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Casa Pia ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 577 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 14
Chaves: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Casa Pia: at least 5Actual: 4
Chaves: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Casa Pia score1.47

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chaves score1.04

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–012.9%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.