Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

Famalicao–Portimonense

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'PortimonenseAlemão (assist: Carlinhos)
34'FamalicaoJ. De Haas · red card
60'FamalicaoJ. Cádiz (assist: Francisco Moura)
63'FamalicaoJ. Cádiz (assist: J. Rodríguez)
77'PortimonenseCarlinhos (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Famalicao		Portimonense
18	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
319	Passes	357
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Famalicao 1.84 · Portimonense 0.96. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Famalicao 18 · Portimonense 16; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Luís Godinho→

4.58

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Famalicao, 0.92 for Portimonense.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Famalicao win or draw).
These values were computed from 571 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Famalicao to win58.7%

Draw24.1%

Portimonense to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Famalicao lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time40.2%

Portimonense lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Famalicao ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Portimonense ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 571 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 11
Portimonense: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Famalicao: at least 5Actual: 9
Portimonense: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Famalicao score1.84

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portimonense concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portimonense score0.96

Attack: Portimonense score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–011.0%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.