Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

SC Braga–Vizela

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'VizelaS. Essende (assist: D. Quina)
53'SC BragaR. Zalazar
85'SC BragaR. Zalazar (assist: J. Moutinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Vizela
17	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
497	Passes	373
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.38 · Vizela 0.75. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Braga 17 · Vizela 5; on target 5 and 2.
SC Braga kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

André Narciso→

5.19

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.9%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.73 for SC Braga, 0.84 for Vizela.
The highest double chance value is 92.3% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 570 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win77.9%

Draw14.4%

Vizela to win7.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Braga win or draw92.3%

12 — any result other than a draw85.6%

X2 — draw or Vizela win22.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Braga lead at half-time48.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Vizela lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Vizela ahead51.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 570 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 15
Vizela: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 4
Vizela: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.38

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Vizela concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.38 goals.

How many goals Vizela score0.75

Attack: Vizela score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.7%3–09.8%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 570 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 63 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.