Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

Vizela–Chaves

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 15 April 2024 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Vizela, Caldas de Vizela

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'ChavesJota Gonçalves (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vizela		Chaves
14	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
514	Passes	282
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vizela 1.63 · Chaves 1.12. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Vizela 14 · Chaves 7; on target 4 and 2.
Vizela kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.80

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Vizela to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Vizela, 1.08 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (1X — Vizela win or draw).
These values were computed from 565 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vizela to win46.3%

Draw27.7%

Chaves to win26.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vizela lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time44.7%

Chaves lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vizela ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 565 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vizela: at least 14Actual: 17
Chaves: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Vizela: at least 5Actual: 10
Chaves: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vizela score1.63

Attack: Vizela score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chaves score1.12

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vizela's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.5%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.