Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 27

Benfica–Chaves

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 March 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'BenficaJ. Neves (assist: Á. Di María)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Chaves
22	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	0
17	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
534	Passes	272
464	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.96 · Chaves 0.42. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Benfica 22 · Chaves 7; on target 7 and 0.
Benfica kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

6.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.8%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.16 for Benfica, 0.59 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 96.8% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win87.8%

Draw9.0%

Chaves to win3.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 269 of 310 predictions were correct (86.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 838 of 1,955 predictions were correct (42.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Benfica win or draw96.8%

12 — any result other than a draw91.0%

X2 — draw or Chaves win12.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (9.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Benfica lead at half-time64.8%

Level at half-time30.3%

Chaves lead at half-time4.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level95.1%

12 — not level at half-time69.7%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead35.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 13Actual: 12
Chaves: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Benfica: at least 7Actual: 11
Chaves: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals73.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.96

Attack: Benfica score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.96 goals.

How many goals Chaves score0.42

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–012.9%2–011.8%4–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 540 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.