Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Chaves–Boavista

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 February 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'ChavesRaphael Guzzo (assist: Jô)
23'BoavistaBruno Lourenço (penalty)
59'ChavesCarraça · red card
71'ChavesHéctor Hernández (assist: J. Correia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Chaves		Boavista
9	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
267	Passes	399
195	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Chaves 1.50 · Boavista 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Chaves 9 · Boavista 13; on target 5 and 3.
Boavista kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Hélder Carvalho→

5.63

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.0%: “Boavista to win”. Second comes “Chaves to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Chaves, 1.17 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Chaves to win34.8%

Draw30.2%

Boavista to win35.0%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,629 of 8,430 predictions were correct (31.2%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	16

6	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Chaves lead at half-time14.3%

Level at half-time40.6%

Boavista lead at half-time45.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Chaves ahead or level54.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead85.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Chaves: at least 13Actual: 17
Boavista: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Chaves: at least 4Actual: 4
Boavista: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Chaves score1.50

Attack: Chaves score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Boavista's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boavista score1.26

Attack: Boavista score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chaves concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–110.4%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.