Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 16

Estrela–Vizela

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 January 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'EstrelaAndre Luiz (assist: Jean Felipe)
48'VizelaSamu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estrela		Vizela
14	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
294	Passes	454
201	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estrela 1.37 · Vizela 1.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Estrela 14 · Vizela 17; on target 4 and 4.
Vizela kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida→

4.93

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Vizela to win”. Second comes “Estrela to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Estrela, 1.25 for Vizela.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 443 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estrela to win33.5%

Draw29.6%

Vizela to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Estrela lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time51.6%

Vizela lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Estrela ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time48.4%

X2 — level or Vizela ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 443 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estrela: at least 12Actual: 14
Vizela: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Estrela: at least 5Actual: 6
Vizela: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estrela score1.37

Attack: Estrela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vizela's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vizela score1.06

Attack: Vizela score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.1%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.