Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

Southampton–Brighton

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'BrightonJoao Pedro
56'BrightonG. Rutter (assist: Y. Minteh)
71'BrightonK. Mitoma (assist: Joao Pedro)
82'BrightonJ. Hinshelwood (assist: B. Gruda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Southampton		Brighton
6	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	12
2	Shots inside the box	15
8	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
431	Passes	436
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Southampton 1.06 · Brighton 2.07. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Southampton 6 · Brighton 18; on target 1 and 12.

Referee

D. Bond→

4.20

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.8%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Southampton, 2.18 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (X2 — draw or Brighton win).
These values were computed from 1,013 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Southampton to win16.2%

Draw21.0%

Brighton to win62.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Southampton lead at half-time17.0%

Level at half-time37.4%

Brighton lead at half-time45.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Southampton ahead or level54.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead83.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1013 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Southampton: at least 11Actual: 11
Brighton: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Southampton: at least 4Actual: 5
Brighton: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Southampton score1.06

Attack: Southampton score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score2.07

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%1–110.1%0–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.