Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Round - 8

Club Brugge KV–Union St. Gilloise

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 13 May 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Union St. GilloiseH. Teklab (assist: M. Rasmussen)
57'Club Brugge KVAndreas Skov Olsen (assist: Ferran Jutglà)
72'Club Brugge KVAndreas Skov Olsen (assist: M. De Cuyper)
84'Union St. GilloiseK. Machida (assist: C. Puertas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Union St. Gilloise
25	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	6
17	Shots inside the box	14
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
483	Passes	378
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 1.60 · Union St. Gilloise 1.16. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Club Brugge KV 25 · Union St. Gilloise 18; on target 4 and 6.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.73

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “Union St. Gilloise to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Club Brugge KV, 1.32 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 579 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win42.6%

Draw26.6%

Union St. Gilloise to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time41.2%

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Union St. Gilloise ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 579 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 7
Union St. Gilloise: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 5Actual: 8
Union St. Gilloise: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.60

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.60 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.16

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.16 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.