Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 6

AS Eupen–RWDM

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kehrwegstadion, Eupen

Goals and red cards

53'AS EupenI. Nuhu (assist: A. Keita)
89'AS EupenC. Makosso (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Eupen		RWDM
12	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	9
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
4	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
351	Passes	478
262	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Eupen 1.66 · RWDM 1.25. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AS Eupen 12 · RWDM 18; on target 4 and 7.
RWDM kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

3.70

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “RWDM to win”. Second comes “AS Eupen to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for AS Eupen, 1.55 for RWDM.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 577 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Eupen to win31.5%

Draw26.7%

RWDM to win41.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,895 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Eupen win or draw58.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or RWDM win68.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Eupen lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time41.4%

RWDM lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Eupen ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or RWDM ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 577 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Eupen: at least 10Actual: 11
RWDM: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

AS Eupen: at least 5Actual: 2
RWDM: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Eupen score1.66

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RWDM concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RWDM score1.25

Attack: RWDM score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 577 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.