Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 5

Kortrijk–AS Eupen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

Goals and red cards

29'AS EupenB. Lambert · red card
45+10'KortrijkJ. Silva (assist: A. Kadri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		AS Eupen
18	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
527	Passes	306
437	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 1.48 · AS Eupen 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Kortrijk 18 · AS Eupen 10; on target 4 and 2.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.04

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Kortrijk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Kortrijk, 1.16 for AS Eupen.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Kortrijk win or draw).
These values were computed from 577 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win49.6%

Draw25.8%

AS Eupen to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kortrijk win or draw75.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or AS Eupen win50.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kortrijk lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time44.9%

AS Eupen lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or AS Eupen ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 577 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 9Actual: 15
AS Eupen: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 5Actual: 7
AS Eupen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score1.48

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Eupen score1.13

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.6%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 577 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.