Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 4

RWDM–Kortrijk

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion, Bruxelles

Goals and red cards

16'KortrijkN. Mehssatou Sepulveda (assist: J. Silva)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RWDM		Kortrijk
15	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
629	Passes	301
514	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RWDM 1.66 · Kortrijk 1.20. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots RWDM 15 · Kortrijk 10; on target 4 and 3.
RWDM kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.73

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “RWDM to win”. Second comes “Kortrijk to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for RWDM, 1.35 for Kortrijk.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 574 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RWDM to win42.3%

Draw26.4%

Kortrijk to win31.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

RWDM lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Kortrijk lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RWDM ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Kortrijk ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 574 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RWDM: at least 10Actual: 13
Kortrijk: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

RWDM: at least 4Actual: 6
Kortrijk: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RWDM score1.66

Attack: RWDM score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kortrijk score1.20

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RWDM concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.