Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Round - 3

Charleroi–AS Eupen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

Goals and red cards

14'CharleroiDaan Heymans

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charleroi		AS Eupen
19	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
475	Passes	402
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charleroi 1.71 · AS Eupen 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Charleroi 19 · AS Eupen 9; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

W. Smet→

3.32

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Charleroi, 0.89 for AS Eupen.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Charleroi win or draw).
These values were computed from 568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charleroi to win54.0%

Draw26.6%

AS Eupen to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Charleroi win or draw80.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or AS Eupen win46.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Charleroi lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

AS Eupen lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Charleroi ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or AS Eupen ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 568 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 12
AS Eupen: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Charleroi: at least 5Actual: 7
AS Eupen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charleroi score1.71

Attack: Charleroi score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Eupen score0.92

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.5%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.