Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Round - 4

Genk–Anderlecht

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cegeka Arena, Genk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'GenkT. Arokodare (assist: Z. El Ouahdi)
75'AnderlechtA. Dreyer (assist: T. Delaney)
90+1'GenkA. Zeqiri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genk		Anderlecht
22	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
498	Passes	429
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genk 1.78 · Anderlecht 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Genk 22 · Anderlecht 9; on target 10 and 2.

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.77

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Genk, 1.24 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 565 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genk to win42.3%

Draw27.4%

Anderlecht to win30.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Genk lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time43.1%

Anderlecht lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Genk ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 565 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genk: at least 11Actual: 10
Anderlecht: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Genk: at least 4Actual: 4
Anderlecht: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genk score1.78

Attack: Genk score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.11

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.9%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.