Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Round - 2

Club Brugge KV–Anderlecht

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 April 2024 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Club Brugge KVB. Mechele (assist: M. Skóraś)
61'Club Brugge KVR. Onyedika (assist: M. Skóraś)
89'Club Brugge KVR. Onyedika (assist: Ferran Jutglà)
90+1'AnderlechtA. Dreyer (assist: L. Augustinsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Anderlecht
20	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	7
12	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
384	Passes	507
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 1.89 · Anderlecht 1.00. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Club Brugge KV 20 · Anderlecht 13; on target 8 and 7.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.72

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Club Brugge KV, 1.27 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win43.5%

Draw26.8%

Anderlecht to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Anderlecht lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 10Actual: 8
Anderlecht: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 5Actual: 3
Anderlecht: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.89

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.00

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.0%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.