Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

Cercle Brugge–RWDM

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Cercle BruggeK. Denkey (assist: A. Minda)
22'Cercle BruggeE. Utkus
47'Cercle BruggeA. Minda (assist: Felipe Augusto)
84'Cercle BruggeThibo Somers (assist: H. Siquet)
90+2'RWDMM. Gueye · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		RWDM
22	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
368	Passes	377
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 2.52 · RWDM 0.79. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Cercle Brugge 22 · RWDM 4; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

J. Vergoote→

4.21

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.9%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.52 for Cercle Brugge, 0.83 for RWDM.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win74.9%

Draw16.3%

RWDM to win8.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time52.6%

Level at half-time35.6%

RWDM lead at half-time11.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level88.2%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or RWDM ahead47.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 552 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 6
RWDM: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 6Actual: 11
RWDM: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score2.52

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RWDM concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RWDM score0.79

Attack: RWDM score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.2%3–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.