Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

OH Leuven–KV Mechelen

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+3'OH LeuvenN. Nsingi (assist: S. Schrijvers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		KV Mechelen
14	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
413	Passes	550
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.43 · KV Mechelen 1.28. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots OH Leuven 14 · KV Mechelen 16; on target 4 and 4.
KV Mechelen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.69

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “OH Leuven to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for OH Leuven, 1.50 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win34.5%

Draw26.8%

KV Mechelen to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time40.9%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 552 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 9Actual: 14
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 5Actual: 3
KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.43

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.28

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.