Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

Standard Liege–AS Eupen

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 March 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Standard LiegeW. Kanga
40'Standard LiegeW. Balikwisha (assist: K. Yeboah)
82'Standard LiegeK. Yeboah (assist: W. Kanga)
89'Standard LiegeR. Charles-Cook (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		AS Eupen
14	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
625	Passes	486
539	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.74 · AS Eupen 0.90. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Standard Liege 14 · AS Eupen 9; on target 6 and 4.
Standard Liege kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.14

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Standard Liege to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Standard Liege, 0.96 for AS Eupen.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Standard Liege win or draw).
These values were computed from 548 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win60.5%

Draw23.0%

AS Eupen to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

2	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Standard Liege lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time41.4%

AS Eupen lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or AS Eupen ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 548 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 2
AS Eupen: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 5Actual: 5
AS Eupen: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.74

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Eupen score0.90

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.