Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

AS Eupen–St. Truiden

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 March 2024 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kehrwegstadion, Eupen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.9% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'AS EupenRenaud Emond

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Eupen		St. Truiden
7	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
298	Passes	647
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Eupen 1.19 · St. Truiden 1.46. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AS Eupen 7 · St. Truiden 17; on target 2 and 4.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Allaerts→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “AS Eupen to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for AS Eupen, 1.35 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 547 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Eupen to win33.3%

Draw28.5%

St. Truiden to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AS Eupen lead at half-time18.2%

Level at half-time43.7%

St. Truiden lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Eupen ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or St. Truiden ahead81.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 547 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Eupen: at least 11Actual: 12
St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

AS Eupen: at least 4Actual: 4
St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Eupen score1.19

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score1.46

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.2%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.