Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 28

Kortrijk–RWDM

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 March 2024 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'KortrijkI. Davies (assist: A. Kadri)
24'RWDMMickaël Biron
63'KortrijkA. Kadri
65'RWDMJ. Reine-Adélaïde
74'KortrijkA. Kadri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		RWDM
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
414	Passes	362
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 1.50 · RWDM 1.33. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Kortrijk 16 · RWDM 12; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.72

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Kortrijk to win”. Second comes “RWDM to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Kortrijk, 1.30 for RWDM.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 539 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win39.5%

Draw27.6%

RWDM to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kortrijk lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

RWDM lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or RWDM ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 539 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 9Actual: 10
RWDM: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 5Actual: 8
RWDM: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score1.50

Attack: Kortrijk score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RWDM concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RWDM score1.33

Attack: RWDM score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.