Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 25

RWDM–Antwerp

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 February 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion, Bruxelles

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AntwerpToby Alderweireld (penalty)
36'AntwerpV. Janssen (assist: C. Ejuke)
45+1'AntwerpJ. Ondrejka (assist: V. Janssen)
63'AntwerpToby Alderweireld (penalty)
66'RWDMPhilipe Sampaio · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
RWDM		Antwerp
2	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	9
2	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
311	Passes	646
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RWDM 0.92 · Antwerp 2.02. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots RWDM 2 · Antwerp 13; on target 1 and 9.
Antwerp kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. Lardot→

3.73

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Antwerp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for RWDM, 1.81 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (X2 — draw or Antwerp win).
These values were computed from 512 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RWDM to win19.5%

Draw24.5%

Antwerp to win56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

RWDM lead at half-time14.2%

Level at half-time38.4%

Antwerp lead at half-time47.3%

First-half double chance

1X — RWDM ahead or level52.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead85.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 512 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RWDM: at least 10Actual: 15
Antwerp: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

RWDM: at least 3Actual: 5
Antwerp: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RWDM score0.92

Attack: RWDM score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score2.02

Attack: Antwerp score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: RWDM concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.9%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.