Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Adana Demirspor–Gaziantep FK

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Adana DemirsporN. Alioui (assist: Ali Yavuz Kol)
32'Gaziantep FKA. Maxim (penalty)
35'Adana DemirsporN. Alioui (assist: B. Fougeu)
64'Gaziantep FKE. Boateng (assist: D. Sorescu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Gaziantep FK
19	Shots	20
8	Shots on target	10
10	Shots inside the box	12
8	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	8
46%	Possession	54%
323	Passes	379
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 1.28 · Gaziantep FK 1.64. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Adana Demirspor 19 · Gaziantep FK 20; on target 8 and 10.

Unavailable players

Adana Demirspor

A. Gravillonout · Knee Injury
T. Kalenderdoubtful · injury

Gaziantep FK

A. Kızıldağout · not in squad
B. Ndiayeout · not in squad
Bruno Vianaout · not in squad
Burak Bozanout · yellow-card suspension
D. Okerekeout · not in squad
G. Stephenout · Leg Injury
Q. Daubinout · injury
S. Dioudisout · not in squad
S. Gülerout · yellow-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Şen→

4.30

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.5%: “Gaziantep FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Adana Demirspor, 2.70 for Gaziantep FK.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (X2 — draw or Gaziantep FK win).
These values were computed from 1,031 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win14.9%

Draw17.6%

Gaziantep FK to win67.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time23.1%

Level at half-time40.6%

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Gaziantep FK ahead76.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1030 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score1.28

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.64

Attack: Gaziantep FK score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 53% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.5%1–38.6%1–16.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.