Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 6

Mladost Novi Sad–Napredak

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 May 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Karađorđe Stadium, Novi Sad

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Novi Sad		Napredak
16	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Novi Sad 0.93 · Napredak 0.95. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Mladost Novi Sad 16 · Napredak 11; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

M. Marković→

3.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.0%: “a draw”. Second comes “Napredak to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Mladost Novi Sad, 0.95 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 67.5% (X2 — draw or Napredak win).
These values were computed from 264 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Novi Sad to win32.5%

Draw34.0%

Napredak to win33.5%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,835 of 9,041 predictions were correct (31.4%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mladost Novi Sad lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time48.2%

Napredak lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Novi Sad ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 264 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Novi Sad: at least 10Actual: 21
Napredak: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Mladost Novi Sad: at least 5Actual: 9
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Novi Sad score0.93

Attack: Mladost Novi Sad score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.95

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Novi Sad concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–015.0%0–113.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.