Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 6

Radnik Surdulica–Kolubara

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 22 May 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

Goals and red cards

15'Radnik SurdulicaA. Radulović (penalty)
27'KolubaraD. Sadiković
48'Radnik SurdulicaP. Kunić (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnik Surdulica		Kolubara
2	Shots	1
2	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
2	Fouls	1

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica 1.12 · Kolubara 0.82. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Radnik Surdulica 2 · Kolubara 1; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

N. Radaković→

2.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Radnik Surdulica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Radnik Surdulica, 0.82 for Kolubara.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Radnik Surdulica win or draw).
These values were computed from 264 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnik Surdulica to win41.9%

Draw32.7%

Kolubara to win25.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time50.4%

Kolubara lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnik Surdulica ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time49.6%

X2 — level or Kolubara ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 264 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnik Surdulica: at least 11Actual: 2
Kolubara: at least 10Actual: 1

Corners

Radnik Surdulica: at least 5
Kolubara: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.12

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kolubara's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kolubara score0.82

Attack: Kolubara score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%1–115.3%0–014.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.