Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 4

Javor–Kolubara

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ivanjica, Ivanjica

Goals and red cards

12'JavorNorman Campbell
52'JavorNorman Campbell

Match statistics

Match statistics
Javor		Kolubara
2	Shots	0
2	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
2	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Javor 1.25 · Kolubara 0.91. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Javor 2 · Kolubara 0; on target 2 and 0.

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

2.71

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Javor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Javor, 0.91 for Kolubara.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — Javor win or draw).
These values were computed from 252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Javor to win43.5%

Draw30.8%

Kolubara to win25.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Javor lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time49.1%

Kolubara lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Javor ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.9%

X2 — level or Kolubara ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Javor: at least 4
Kolubara: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Javor score1.25

Attack: Javor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kolubara's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kolubara score0.91

Attack: Kolubara score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Javor concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.7%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.