Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 4

Mladost Novi Sad–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Karađorđe Stadium, Novi Sad

Goals and red cards

57'Mladost Novi SadN. Milić
84'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVEdmund Addo
89'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVN. Shimura · red card
90+6'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVMarko Bugarin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Novi Sad		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1	Shots	1
1	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
1	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Novi Sad 1.14 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.99. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Mladost Novi Sad 1 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1; on target 1 and 1.

Referee

N. Minaković→

3.25

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Mladost Novi Sad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Mladost Novi Sad, 0.99 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (1X — Mladost Novi Sad win or draw).
These values were computed from 252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Novi Sad to win38.1%

Draw31.6%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win30.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Mladost Novi Sad win or draw69.7%

12 — any result other than a draw68.4%

X2 — draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win61.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mladost Novi Sad lead at half-time34.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Novi Sad ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead65.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Mladost Novi Sad: at least 4
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (44.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Novi Sad score1.14

Attack: Mladost Novi Sad score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.99

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Novi Sad concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.8%0–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 252 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.