Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 2

Mladost Novi Sad–Kolubara

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 April 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Karađorđe Stadium, Novi Sad

Goals and red cards

31'Mladost Novi SadN. Maksimović (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Novi Sad		Kolubara
1	Shots	0
1	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
1	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Novi Sad 1.10 · Kolubara 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Mladost Novi Sad 1 · Kolubara 0; on target 1 and 0.

Referee

M. Milanović→

4.56

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Mladost Novi Sad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Mladost Novi Sad, 0.90 for Kolubara.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (1X — Mladost Novi Sad win or draw).
These values were computed from 244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Novi Sad to win39.2%

Draw32.6%

Kolubara to win28.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Mladost Novi Sad win or draw71.8%

12 — any result other than a draw67.4%

X2 — draw or Kolubara win60.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (32.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Mladost Novi Sad lead at half-time24.6%

Level at half-time47.5%

Kolubara lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Novi Sad ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Kolubara ahead75.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Mladost Novi Sad: at least 6
Kolubara: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Novi Sad score1.10

Attack: Mladost Novi Sad score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kolubara's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kolubara score0.90

Attack: Kolubara score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Novi Sad concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–014.3%0–013.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.