Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Antalyaspor–Trabzonspor

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'TrabzonsporO. Zubkov (assist: J. Lundstram)
57'TrabzonsporJ. Lundstram (assist: O. Zubkov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Antalyaspor		Trabzonspor
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
478	Passes	567
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Antalyaspor 1.29 · Trabzonspor 1.48. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Antalyaspor 9 · Trabzonspor 10; on target 2 and 4.

Unavailable players

Antalyaspor

B. Öztürkout · injury
E. Uzunout · Knee Injury
E. Yeşilyurtout · Knee Injury
K. Piricout · not in squad
S. van de Streekout · injury
E. Rakipdoubtful · injury
O. Petrusenkodoubtful · not in squad
S. Dikmendoubtful · injury
S. Larssondoubtful · not in squad

Trabzonspor

A. Batagovout · injury
A. Nwakaemeout · yellow-card suspension
B. Mendyout · yellow-card suspension
C. Canakout · injury
E. Destan

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.39

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “Antalyaspor to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Antalyaspor, 1.54 for Trabzonspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,026 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Antalyaspor to win33.2%

Draw26.6%

Trabzonspor to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

E. Viscaout · injury

H. Turkmenout · injury

Muhammed Chamout · yellow-card suspension

Onuralp Çevikkanout · Finger Injury

Uğurcan Çakırout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Antalyaspor win or draw59.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Trabzonspor win66.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Antalyaspor lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

Trabzonspor lead at half-time38.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Antalyaspor ahead or level61.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Trabzonspor ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1025 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Antalyaspor: at least 12Actual: 8
Trabzonspor: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Antalyaspor: at least 4Actual: 2
Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Antalyaspor score1.29

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.48

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1026 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.