Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Hatayspor–Fenerbahçe

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 26 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 7%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'FenerbahçeY. En Nesyri
38'FenerbahçeM. Müldür · red card
44'HataysporE. Çetin (own goal)
53'HataysporBilal Boutobba
63'HataysporG. Sağlam (penalty)
66'HataysporJ. Okoronkwo (assist: G. Sağlam)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Fenerbahçe
15	Shots	20
7	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	8
0	Offsides	5
53%	Possession	47%
462	Passes	389
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 0.81 · Fenerbahçe 2.57. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Hatayspor 15 · Fenerbahçe 20; on target 7 and 7.

Unavailable players

Hatayspor

C. Strandbergout · red-card suspension
Rui Pedroout · injury

Fenerbahçe

A. Saint-Maximinout · injury
D. Livakovicout · not in squad
Diego Carlosout · injury
Fredout · yellow-card suspension
J. Oosterwoldeout · Knee Injury
M. Yandasout · Knock
Rodrigo Becaoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

Y. Arslan→

5.37

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.3%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Hatayspor, 3.29 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 1,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win7.1%

Draw11.7%

Fenerbahçe to win81.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

İ. Kahveci (assist: Talisca)

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hatayspor win or draw18.7%

12 — any result other than a draw88.3%

X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win92.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hatayspor lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time37.2%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time44.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level56.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1024 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 12Actual: 10
Fenerbahçe: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 3Actual: 2
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals82.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 43 of 53 predictions were correct (81.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score0.81

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score2.57

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.57 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–39.0%1–27.9%0–37.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1025 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 93 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.