Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Trabzonspor–Samsunspor

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Papara Park, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'SamsunsporEmre Kılınç (assist: Y. Ait Bennasser)
86'TrabzonsporP. Malheiro (assist: Muhammed Cham)
88'TrabzonsporP. Malheiro (assist: Muhammed Cham)
89'SamsunsporMarius (assist: Emre Kılınç)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Samsunspor
22	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
564	Passes	339
512	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.51 · Samsunspor 1.14. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Trabzonspor 22 · Samsunspor 7; on target 5 and 3.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (63%).

Unavailable players

Trabzonspor

A. Batagovout · injury
E. Destanout · injury
H. Turkmenout · injury
Onuralp Çevikkanout · Finger Injury
Stefan Savićout · not in squad
Uğurcan Çakırout · not in squad
C. Canakdoubtful · injury

Samsunspor

M. Ozbaskicidoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

O. Ergün→

5.11

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “Trabzonspor to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Trabzonspor, 1.40 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,020 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win36.2%

Draw27.4%

Samsunspor to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Trabzonspor win or draw63.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Samsunspor win63.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Trabzonspor lead at half-time41.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

Samsunspor lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead58.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1019 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 11Actual: 15
Samsunspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 4Actual: 11
Samsunspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.51

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.14

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.1%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1020 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.