1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 35

Tabor Sežana–Maribor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 May 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Štolfa, Sežana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'MariborA. Jakupovic
90+4'Tabor SežanaDino Halilović

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tabor Sežana		Maribor
12	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
12	Fouls	12

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tabor Sežana 0.72 · Maribor 2.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Tabor Sežana 12 · Maribor 8; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

D. Balažič→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.5%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.72 for Tabor Sežana, 2.23 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (X2 — draw or Maribor win).
These values were computed from 173 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tabor Sežana to win9.2%

Draw18.3%

Maribor to win72.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tabor Sežana lead at half-time8.1%

Level at half-time34.5%

Maribor lead at half-time57.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Tabor Sežana ahead or level42.6%

12 — not level at half-time65.5%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead91.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tabor Sežana: at least 12Actual: 12
Maribor: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Tabor Sežana: at least 4Actual: 4
Maribor: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tabor Sežana score0.72

Attack: Tabor Sežana score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maribor's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score2.23

Attack: Maribor score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Tabor Sežana concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.23 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.5%0–110.9%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.