1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 35

Mura–Gorica

4–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'GoricaB. Karrica
34'MuraD. Morris
37'GoricaAlen Krajnc
53'MuraM. Daku
55'MuraM. Daku
69'MuraM. Daku

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mura		Gorica
10	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	7
0	Shots inside the box	0
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
21	Fouls	14

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mura 1.44 · Gorica 0.90. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Mura 10 · Gorica 12; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

A. Borošak→

2.73

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Mura to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Mura, 0.90 for Gorica.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Mura win or draw).
These values were computed from 170 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mura to win49.4%

Draw28.5%

Gorica to win22.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Mura lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time44.4%

Gorica lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Mura ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Gorica ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 170 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mura: at least 13Actual: 21
Gorica: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Mura: at least 5Actual: 5
Gorica: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mura score1.44

Attack: Mura score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gorica concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gorica score0.90

Attack: Gorica score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–013.2%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.