1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

Bravo–Tabor Sežana

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 4 May 2023 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park Šiška, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'BravoL. Štor
84'Tabor SežanaDino Halilović

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bravo		Tabor Sežana
11	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bravo 1.44 · Tabor Sežana 0.88. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bravo 11 · Tabor Sežana 10; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

A. Borošak→

2.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Bravo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Bravo, 0.88 for Tabor Sežana.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Bravo win or draw).
These values were computed from 168 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bravo to win49.9%

Draw28.6%

Tabor Sežana to win21.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bravo lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time47.5%

Tabor Sežana lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bravo ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Tabor Sežana ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 168 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bravo: at least 12Actual: 9
Tabor Sežana: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Bravo: at least 5Actual: 2
Tabor Sežana: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bravo score1.44

Attack: Bravo score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tabor Sežana concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tabor Sežana score0.88

Attack: Tabor Sežana score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bravo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–013.5%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.