1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 34

Gorica–Celje

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 May 2023 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Nova Gorica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'GoricaE. Velikonja
54'CeljeMark Zabukovnik
66'CeljeA. Matko

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gorica		Celje
4	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
17	Fouls	8

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gorica 0.84 · Celje 1.55. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Gorica 4 · Celje 8; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

D. Šmajc→

4.50

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Gorica, 1.55 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (X2 — draw or Celje win).
These values were computed from 167 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gorica to win18.8%

Draw27.2%

Celje to win54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gorica lead at half-time12.7%

Level at half-time44.3%

Celje lead at half-time42.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Gorica ahead or level57.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Celje ahead87.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 167 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gorica: at least 12Actual: 17
Celje: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Gorica: at least 4Actual: 8
Celje: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gorica score0.84

Attack: Gorica score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.55

Attack: Celje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gorica concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%0–113.6%0–211.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.