1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 33

Tabor Sežana–Radomlje

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Štolfa, Sežana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Tabor SežanaS. Marasovic
74'RadomljeE. Sokler
90+5'RadomljeU. Korun

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tabor Sežana 1.07 · Radomlje 1.41. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

B. Mertik→

4.63

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “Radomlje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Tabor Sežana, 1.41 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (X2 — draw or Radomlje win).
These values were computed from 163 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tabor Sežana to win27.2%

Draw28.6%

Radomlje to win44.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tabor Sežana lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time44.5%

Radomlje lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Tabor Sežana ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 163 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tabor Sežana: at least 12
Radomlje: at least 10

Corners

Tabor Sežana: at least 4
Radomlje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tabor Sežana score1.07

Attack: Tabor Sežana score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score1.41

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tabor Sežana concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–111.0%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.