1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 33

NK Domzale–Gorica

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 April 2023 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'NK DomzaleL. Topalovic
63'GoricaD. Kolobarić

Match statistics

Match statistics
NK Domzale		Gorica
12	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
14	Fouls	6

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.49 · Gorica 0.83. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots NK Domzale 12 · Gorica 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

R. Obrenović→

4.62

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for NK Domzale, 0.83 for Gorica.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (1X — NK Domzale win or draw).
These values were computed from 160 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win52.6%

Draw27.9%

Gorica to win19.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

NK Domzale lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time44.2%

Gorica lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Gorica ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 160 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 14Actual: 14
Gorica: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4Actual: 5
Gorica: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.49

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gorica concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gorica score0.83

Attack: Gorica score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–114.0%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.