1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 31

Koper–Gorica

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 April 2023 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: ŠRC Bonifika, Koper

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'KoperL. Kambic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Koper		Gorica
14	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
16	Fouls	5

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Koper 1.46 · Gorica 0.81. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Koper 14 · Gorica 6; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

A. Borošak→

2.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Koper to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Koper, 0.81 for Gorica.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Koper win or draw).
These values were computed from 150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Koper to win52.4%

Draw28.3%

Gorica to win19.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Koper lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time45.6%

Gorica lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Koper ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Gorica ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Koper: at least 13Actual: 16
Gorica: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Koper: at least 4Actual: 7
Gorica: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Koper score1.46

Attack: Koper score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gorica concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gorica score0.81

Attack: Gorica score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Koper concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.6%1–114.0%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.