1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 30

Tabor Sežana–NK Domzale

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 April 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Štolfa, Sežana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Tabor SežanaL. Šušnjara
44'NK DomzaleA. Brecl

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tabor Sežana		NK Domzale
10	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	6
0	Shots inside the box	0
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tabor Sežana 0.75 · NK Domzale 1.79. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Tabor Sežana 10 · NK Domzale 9; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

A. Bubek→

4.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Tabor Sežana, 1.79 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 86.3% (X2 — draw or NK Domzale win).
These values were computed from 145 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tabor Sežana to win13.7%

Draw23.8%

NK Domzale to win62.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Tabor Sežana lead at half-time7.3%

Level at half-time39.1%

NK Domzale lead at half-time53.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Tabor Sežana ahead or level46.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead92.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 145 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tabor Sežana: at least 12Actual: 19
NK Domzale: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Tabor Sežana: at least 4Actual: 2
NK Domzale: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tabor Sežana score0.75

Attack: Tabor Sežana score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score1.79

Attack: NK Domzale score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tabor Sežana concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.6%0–213.1%1–112.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.