1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 29

Olimpija Ljubljana–Tabor Sežana

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 April 2023 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Krdžalić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olimpija Ljubljana		Tabor Sežana
12	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
13	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 2.27 · Tabor Sežana 0.73. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Olimpija Ljubljana 12 · Tabor Sežana 11; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

A. Matković→

4.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.9%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.73 for Tabor Sežana.
The highest double chance value is 90.9% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win72.9%

Draw18.0%

Tabor Sežana to win9.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time44.2%

Tabor Sežana lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Tabor Sežana ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11Actual: 13
Tabor Sežana: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 6Actual: 4
Tabor Sežana: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score2.27

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Tabor Sežana concede 44% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

How many goals Tabor Sežana score0.73

Attack: Tabor Sežana score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–010.5%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.